Iran Launches Attack, Israel’s Next Move May Determine Course of War: The Case of the April 11 Israeli-Israel Missile Attack

In recent days, American officials have been assessing how a missile exchange between Iran and Israel could unfold. The most optimistic prediction was a repeat of the events in April when the United States, Israel, Jordan and others stopped almost all the missiles and drones fired toward Israel.

President Biden urged Israel to take the win after they fired missiles at a air base in Iran but didn’t hit the facilities themselves. Next time, they could aim for assets from Iran.

The more extreme scenarios being explored this time, according to the American officials, involve Israel striking at the nuclear facilities, particularly at enrichment sites at Natanz, the heart of the Iranian program. American officials said it could take days or even weeks to convert Iran’s near bomb-graded material to bomb-grade at Natanz. It would take far longer to produce a nuclear weapon.

In April, Israeli officials said the Iranian attack consisted of 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles and 120 surface-to- surface missiles. Most were fired from Iran, but a small number were from Iraq and Yemen. The weapons used in the barrage were more sophisticated than anything Israel had encountered during the first six months of fighting against Hamas in Gaza.

The attack caused minor damage at one military base and shrapnel seriously injured a 7-year-old girl from an Arab Bedouin community in southern Israel.

Source: As Iran Launches Attack, Israel’s Next Move May Determine Course of War

Iran is ready to confront the United States: Israel has the chance to make a difference, and does Iran want to destroy it,” General Amidror told the Associated Press

Grant Rumley, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in an interview that Iran would likely repeat its April attack with a combination of missiles. “Iran wanted to avoid the failures of April by primarily using ballistic missiles, which travel much faster and can overwhelm an air defense system,” he said.

Unlike the April attack where Israel had days of warning to coordinate defenses with their allies in the region, Tuesday’s attack came with only hours of advance notice.

“Israel has much more free rein in the Iranian context than in April, as there’s essentially no more threat that Hezbollah would join,” Mr. Citrinowicz said.

Israel was concerned in April that issuing too strong of a response would encourage Iran to order Hezbollah and other proxy militias to retaliate.

But after launching a bombing campaign that killed Hezbollah’s leader and other commanders last week, along with a ground invasion overnight Tuesday, Israel has weakened Hezbollah, stripping Iran of much of its deterrence against a wider Israeli attack, said Danny Citrinowicz, a retired Israeli intelligence officer who specialized in Iran.

The Biden administration may try to negotiate with Israel over its response. With American elections fast approaching, U.S. officials were likely to have less influence than they did in April.

“This is an escalation whose end is difficult to foresee,” Mr. Citrinowicz said. The action of Israel will likely cause an Iranian response. We appear to be at the start of forceful confrontation between us and the Iranians.”

The fear that Israel has about Iran getting a nuke should be considered, according to General Amidror.

Israel was facing the most significant opportunity of the past 50 years to change the face of the region, wrote Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli prime minister.

“We must act now to destroy its nuclear project, destroy their major energy facilities and critically hit this terrorist regime,” Mr. Bennett said of Iran. He said that the injured body of the octopus is the time to aim for the head.