The Final Days of the Biden-Harris Campaign: Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Their Importance for the Guts Change

Bret Stephens: I like voting on Election Day. A friend of mine voted at the Met museum and said the line was long. Mostly women. I’m predicting a blowout Kamala Harris victory — in Manhattan.

And yeah, what will likely be huge turnout in New York will not have any effect whatsoever on the outcome, since everybody on both sides knew from Day 1 that this was not a state anybody needed to campaign in much. But it would be nice if the margin for Kamala Harris in Donald Trump’s hometown was a super blowout.

Bret: My spidey sense is telling me that Trump will win. It isn’t easy to measure but in the final days of a campaign, he has the momentum. He’s had the better photo ops. The incumbent party loses historically, because only 28 percent of Americans think America is on the right track. I believe that Trump represents control, people feel that too many things have escaped control during the Biden-Harris years, including migration, prices, rent, financing costs, urban safety, and overseas wars.

Frank Bruni, a contributing Opinion writer, hosted a written online conversation on Friday, Nov. 1, with Kristen Soltis Anderson, a contributing Opinion writer and Republican pollster, and Nate Silver, the author of “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything” and the newsletter Silver Bulletin, to discuss polling and politics in the final days of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Their conversation has been edited for clarity.

Frank Bruni thanks you for joining him. Election Day is almost here, and still it seems that nobody really knows anything. Democrats fret — that’s their nature. MAGA Republicans strut, emulating their idol. Are you two? Nate, because you recently wrote a widely read guest essay for us about your gut auguring a victory by Donald Trump, I want to check on your gut now. Guts change. Has yours?

Nate Silver: Well, the whole point of that article — including the headline — was that I don’t think my gut is worth anything in this case. Many people interpreted it differently, as though I was revealing my super-duper secret real prediction. And I expected that. I don’t think either of those things will assist you in making a more accurate prediction since Republicans are usually more confident so that trickles through.

People get very frustrated when I refuse to tell them who I think will win, because I don’t feel confident we know how this will go. It is understandable, we all want certainty. People want to plan for an outcome. They don’t like surprises. I apologize, but you should keep mentally and emotionally prepared for a variety of outcomes.