The U.S. Can’t Have Nothing To Do With Syria: The Case of the Syrian Regime & Iran’s Resistance Network

For the past few weeks, I have been arguing that Israel has inflicted the equivalent of a Six Day War-level defeat on Iran and its resistance network, and this would have vast consequences. The Assad family took power in Syria in 1971 despite the devastating defeat of the 1967 war. What goes around comes around.

However, President-elect Trump is striking a different tone. He said Syria isn’t a U.S. problem and that the U.S. shouldn’t get involved.

There is a big U.S. interest. This is also a no-brainer. It’s that this uprising in Syria in the long run triggers a pro-democracy uprising in Iran. It will cause a power struggle between the moderates and the hard-liners in the short run. We need to change that struggle. The events in Syria, on top of Iran’s military defeat by Israel, have left Tehran naked. This means that Iran’s leaders will now have to choose — quickly — between rushing for a nuclear bomb to save their regime or getting rid of the bomb in a deal with Trump, if he takes regime change off the table. That is why, Mr. Trump, to put it in your typeface: WE CAN’T HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS.

Biggest known unknown: Who are the rebels who took over Syria and what do they really want? There is an Islamic state or a pluralistic democracy. According to history, the hard-line muslims win out in these movements. I am watching and hoping it won’t happen.

The Turkish leader would also like to see more than 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey head home. Some have already begun doing so. In addition, Turkish construction companies are well placed to rebuild Syria, ravaged by more than a decade of war.

“Turkey can become the kingmaker,” he said. Turkey will stand to benefit from a new and friendly government in Damascus.

Some changes seem to be already apparent. Syrians who fled the country’s vicious civil war years ago are lining up at border crossings to return home. The gates are opening at some of the country’s most notorious prisons. Syrians are speaking freely after decades of repressive rule.

U.S. forces have been battling the Islamic State in Syria for a decade and largedly defeated the group five years ago. About 900 U.S. troops remain to guard against a resurgence of the extremists. Most of the Americans live in northeastern Syria, and others in the far south.

President Biden said Sunday the U.S. would continue to have a military presence. He said that the U.S. would work with Syrians to try and form a new government after Assad’s ousting.

The Syrian Emergency Task Force said that the U.S. forces had provided humanitarian assistance to displaced civilians on the southern edge of Syria.

“If you spoke to some of these people, you asked them about the relationship between the US military and them, they would love it,” he said.

The “axis of resistance” in Syria: How Syria’s revolution could re-reshape the Middle East and why Iran is concerned about the situation

Assad’s demise is the latest in a series of setbacks for Tehran. Persian Iran has spent the past four decades developing Arab partners and proxies in the region, collectively known as the “axis of resistance.” But in the past year, they’ve been tumbling like dominos.

Assad was under intense Iranian pressure to stay in power after the country’s civil war erupted in 2011. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards maintained a strong presence in Syria until pulling out last week, just ahead of rebel advances. Iran also used Syria as a bridge to ship weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But now Assad is gone, Hezbollah has been greatly weakened by its war with Israel, and another Iranian proxy, Hamas in Gaza, has been devastated by its own war with Israel.

“Losing Syria will deal a huge blow to Iran and its proxies in the region. “The leaders in Tehran may be feeling anxious right now, I think, because that’s why they are concerned about the situation,” added Goul Tol, with the Middle East Institute. At a time when the regime at home is being questioned, and at a time when Iran’s regional strategy has been dealt a huge blow, this is a time when Iranians feel that they are being taken advantage of.

But Russia is now preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and carried out only a few airstrikes as Assad’s regime collapsed, demonstrating it was not able or willing to provide significant support.

Russia places great value on the naval base and the air base it has on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. They are Russia’s only military bases in the Middle East, and now they are very much at risk. Russia’s previous bombing campaigns inflicted heavy punishment on the rebels — and Syrian civilians — and they may not be inclined to let Russia keep that military presence.

Source: How Syria’s revolution could reshape the Middle East

The relics of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus and the chaos of the Syrian Golan Heights

Israel was always at odds with Assad, but considered him the devil they knew. Israel acknowledged that Assad kept the frontier with Israel largely calm, even when the wider region was aflame.

Israel will now face a Syria that is extremely unpredictable and which could use the assistance of religious groups. Israel has been fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza for the past year. Israel is wary of a similar group in Syria.

The strategic territory was annexed by Israel in the late 1960’s after it was captured in the MidEast war. Israel’s continued hold on the Golan Heights is certain to remain a major point of friction, regardless of who emerges in power in Damascus.

We arrived in Damascus early Monday, after passing surreal scenes on the highway leading into the city from Lebanon. Scattered across the main highway to the Syrian capital are newfound relics of the government of Bashar al-Assad whose oppressive rule has defined the country for decades.

A convoy of 10 rebel vehicles went down the highway from one military base to another. They drove four-wheel drive vehicles — their doors and windows caked in mud as makeshift camouflage — and Syrian military vehicles armed with rockets that once belonged to the al-Assad government.

Checkpoints typically manned by Syrian intelligence and security forces, who would question drivers and passengers for hours on end, were empty. A body of a man in military uniform was found lying on the ground by a truck near the border.

There were also signs of the lawlessness that many fear could seize the country, the celebration over the fall of Mr. al-Assad mixed with the uncertainty of what comes next.

A duty free store just across the border from Lebanon was vandalized with bottles, chocolates and bags of snacks strewn across the floor. Many of the abandoned cars on the roads had their windows broken and their doors open.

Victor Dawli, a young man taking selfies in front of an abandoned tank, remembers the beginnings of retribution for his country

There is a young man taking a selfies in front of an abandoned tank. He put his toddler on top of the tank and told him to hold his fingers up in a V for victory before taking a photo.

In Old Damascus, the centuries-old city center of winding, narrow alleys, Victor Dawli, 59, stood in his apartment’s entryway, a cigarette in hand. The truck carrying Syrian rebels was waved at by Mr. Dawli. One fighter, clutching his rifle and hunched over in the bed of the truck, nodded in response.

Mr. Dawli’s neighborhood, Babsharqi, is home to mostly Christians, many of who supported the Assad government and now fear they could face retribution from rebels and others who were part of the uprising.

As dawn broke on the second day of life in Syria without Mr. Assad, there was a sense of unease in the neighborhood, as people here walked a tightrope. Some have kept their heads down and stayed inside their homes. Others like Mr. Dawli say they have secretly supported the rebels from the start of their offensive.

When one neighbor passed by, Mr. Dawli shouted to him: “Good morning, congratulations!” A man gave a blank stare as he hurried down an alleyway.