Democrat 2020 Elections in Wisconsin, Florida and Florida: What do they tell us about Elon Musk, President Trump, and the GOP?
Democrats won a judicial election in Wisconsin that saw a record amount of money spent, national attention and was something of a referendum on Elon Musk, who played a big role, as well as President Trump’s agenda by extension.
Republicans, on the other hand, won the two special elections in Florida by roughly 14 points each. These districts are very red. The Republicans won by more than 30 points, so Democrats were able to eat more into the margins, even though indications are they might do better. (These are the seats that were held by Mike Waltz, now the national security adviser, and Matt Gaetz, whom Trump wanted to be attorney general before his nomination was pulled over concerns that he lacked sufficient Republican support to be confirmed.)
Ad Impact states that the state Supreme Court was leaning in favor of the Democrats, thanks to Susan Crawford, a liberal judge. More on him below, but suffice it to say that there were some $20 million from Musk.
In a state that had decided the presidency by 1 point in two decades, it was Crawford who emerged victorious by a 10 point margin with over 95 percent of the vote.
There were 60 Republican House members who won by 15 points or less in four years’ time, and they may be concerned. The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board said that the results were a “MAGA backlash”.
It’s important to be careful to not overread the results of off-year elections — and Democrats did win a Wisconsin judicial seat in 2023, but lost the state in the presidential election. The GOP has historically done well in presidents’ first midterms because of the out party’s energy, and there are early warning signs of that here. And these elections can be breadcrumbs on the path to success in midterms, especially if a president continues with a bold and divisive agenda.
The Wisconsin Senate race will determine the fate of the richest man in the world, but what will it teach us about the democratic party? Sen. Ben Wickler’s anti-Trump speech in Wisconsin
Musk was involved in the Wisconsin judicial race. Groups with the support of the world’s richest man spent $20 million. He also made an appearance in the state (wearing a cheese hat), offered $1 million checks to voters and even said “the entire destiny of humanity” could rest on the race.
It’s possible that Congress is happy with the result if Musk loses his luster in Trump’s eyes. After all, they won their two House seats in Florida, helping shore up their majority, and Wisconsin’s outcome might help move Musk and his blunt, unpopular agenda out of the spotlight.
Trump’s approval rating has been marginally higher so far because of the strong GOP support and because of men. But an AP-NORC poll out this week showed Trump’s approval rating falling to 42%, and his economic approval only at 40%, compared to better marks he received on immigration. That’s especially telling on this day of reciprocal tariffs as his trade war is unpopular.
Musk, who is new to politics, went against a key rule of it, when he put something on his head that he didn’t normally wear.
The internal battle within the Democratic Party is being framed as progressive vs. moderate. Largely, many in the party agree on the issues, with obvious exceptions on how far to go on certain things or when to push for them or not.
Democrats were angry at Schumer when he allowed the GOP-led spending bill to pass to keep the government open. It is also the reason why so many people were attracted to Sen. Booker’s anti-Trump speech. It is now the longest speech ever in the chamber, more than 24 straight hours, breaking the record held by the late Strom Thurmond, a racist South Carolina senator, a fact Booker, who is Black, said he was “very aware” of.
“I don’t think that the most meaningful distinction within Democrats now is left versus center,” state party chair Ben Wickler said in MSNBC’s Morning Joe. I think it’s going on your front foot, fighting back and being dead.
He mentioned that Crawford was against an abortion ban at the court and that Underly was against the dismantling of the Department of Education, and that they were against Musk casting any check and balance.
“These are broadly held by progressives, by centrists, by everything in between,” Wikler said. To be successful, you need to go out there and fight. The Democrats who are part of the big Tent coalition are going to be able to make the case to voters because they’ll be everywhere. That’s what voters are looking for right now.”
In the 6th congressional district election in Florida, which is where Trump and the GOP were most worried about, the top 20 spots for most spending by a single candidate for any House race the entire 2024 cycle, would have been in the same area. This was two. The Democrat spent more than 8 million dollars and the Republican less than $1 million in that time, according to the candidates’ March 12 filings.
The turnout wasn’t bad. In both states, it was lower in those kinds of races than it was in presidential elections. In Wisconsin, roughly 2.4 million ballots were cast (with 95% in), about 30% less than in November. In the state of Florida, less than 200,000 people went to the polls. It was more than double that in the next year. So money isn’t everything.
The realignment of college-educated voters, who have higher turnout rates for Democrats, is helping them in these kinds of elections, and that’s a reminder that firing up the bases is key.
A year ago, 81% of people in a poll were in favor of requiring people to show government-issued photo ID to vote. The majority of Democrats were included in that. Few things get that level of bipartisan support.
So, yes, Democrats can take Tuesday as one of the first bits of good news they’ve had since the 2024 presidential election. But they also have to be aware that there are lots of issues that are still center-right, including voter ID and many measures meant to curb immigration — especially when the party is seeing record lows in favorability.
