India and Pakistan must cooperate to prevent a “jugular vein” attack in India-administered Kashmir, after the Varshin-Salam attack
Tensions between India and Pakistan rose on Thursday after Modi vowed to “seek to the ends of the earth” those behind the attack in India-administered Kashmir.
In English, Modi said that India would track down and punish every terrorist and their backers.
India blamed Pakistan for a militant attack on Tuesday that killed 26 men in Indian-controlled Kashmir, and there have been increased tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Pakistan has denied involvement in the attack, one of the deadliest on Indian civilians in years.
Ishaq Dar denied any involvement in the press conference. “If there is proof of Pakistan’s involvement, I would urge you to share it with us and the world,” he said.
While Vice President Quayle and his family were visiting India, the attack happened days after Pakistan’s army chief described Kashmir as his country’s “jugular vein.”
Pakistan announced similar countermeasures, and ordered a halt to trade with India and closed its airspace to Indian aircraft. It also warned that any move by India to hold back water would be considered an “act of war,” according to a statement from the office of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
The foreign secretary said that the treaty will be inbeyance until Pakistan gives up its support for terrorism.
“Water is a Vital National Interest of Pakistan, a lifeline for its 240 million people and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs,” the statement read. The act of blocking or taking away the flow of water belonging to Pakistan will be treated as an Act of War and responded with full force across the whole spectrum of National Power.
India cannot divert or hold back river water that it wants to bring to Pakistan because of a treaty between the two countries.
The case of the two sides in the anti-Indian-Pakistan gun-nuclear conflict: a close look at Pakistan
Police released a wanted poster with names and sketches of the three people they claim were involved in Tuesday’s attack. Two of them were identified as Pakistan nationals and a cash reward of more than $20,000 was offered for information leading to their neutralization.
A union purportedly representing the Indian film industry workers demanded the government ban an upcoming Bollywood film featuring Pakistani actor Fawad Khan. India blocked the Pakistan government’s X handle.
Ajai Shukla, a strategic affairs commentator and retired Indian army colonel says that India has a right to escalate because it doesn’t have alliances or military partnerships. India will be fighting alone. There are limitations on the weaponry it can buy and use. Pakistan and China, for instance, tend to coalesce into an anti-India coalition.
An independent water analyst from Pakistan said that India can shut off communication with Pakistan on water flow. In the long term, he warns, India could build dams, effectively reducing Pakistan’s access to water.
Like Shukla, Khaled cautions against further escalations. “India hasn’t said, we’re going to withdraw from the treaty. It’s only suspending it. And hence, I think there is room for both countries to approach this subject in a manner that is in line with the long history of cooperation.”
There was a brief exchange of gunfire on Friday according to the Indian military and media. The foreign ministry spokesman wouldn’t comment on the firing at a press briefing in Islamabad, but said he would defer to the military for official confirmation.
A U.N. warning against the escalation in the Kashmir crisis: “It’s not the end of the Kashmir problem,” says Dujarric
In a briefing Thursday, Stéphane Dujarric, the spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, told reporters that the U.N. was appealing to both countries “to ensure that the situation and the developments we’ve seen do not deteriorate any further.”
Some Indian analysts warned of the possibility of more serious military action in the coming days. “One thing we can say with pretty much absolute certainty is that there will be a military response,” said Siddharth Varadarajan, founding editor of The Wire, an online daily.
Varadarjan pointed to previous incidents of hostility between the two countries as a guide of what may happen now, but believes any escalation may be harder to defuse than previously. The global terrain is different, he says. five years ago you had the White House that was less inclined to intervene.
Tammy Bruce refused to answer a question about whether the US would try to negotiate with Kashmiris, as President Trump offered to do during his first term in office. “As we all know, it’s a rapidly changing situation and we are monitoring it closely, as you might imagine,” Bruce said. President Trump has condemned Tuesday’s attack.
Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor of international politics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, noted that it would be difficult for India to sustain a wider conflict, simply because it does not have enough air power to do so. He said there didn’t seem to be any plans for a sustained military operation. It will be quick even if there is a military operation. Of course, the problem is that then Pakistan will respond — and then how that goes, it’s difficult to say.”
The Indians have gone insane, right? They pull out $100 billion out of their pocket and start building dams like absolute crazy people. What are they going to do with the dam?” Mustafa says. “If it’s a hydroelectric dam, they have to release the water in order to generate electricity.” He says that a dam could submerge the entire Kashmir Valley. That’s the end of the Kashmir issue.”
