The Democratic Party of the 21st Century: Demographic Findings of Biden and Other Key Influential States in the U.S.

Biden won Latinos in Pennsylvania by the widest margin of any of the swing states — and half of Latinos in the state are of Puerto Rican descent, according to demographer William Frey at the Brookings Institution. Latinos were 5% of the electorate in the state in 2020. That’s not as high as some other key states, but in a very close election, the margins could matter.

Trump went the opposite way. He demonized immigrants and juiced his base with a nativist and nationalistic message — similar to what has been successful for right-wing strongmen in other countries in recent years.

“[W]e must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform,” the RNC’s “Growth & Opportunity Project” stated in 2013. Our appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituency only if we do not.

The former Texas governor was blocked from implementing his immigration reforms by members of Congress. It’s been a similar story with every immigration push since.

They made up about 1% of the voters in Nevada in 2020. They are also notable portions of the voting populations in the other swing states. Since 2008, they have gone up four-fold in North Carolina. Since 2008, they have doubled in Georgia.

The largest single voting group is white voters. Republicans have been dominant with them in the last 20 years, but with the growing Latino and Asian American populations, white voters have been on a sharp decline as a share of the electorate since the 1990s.

This survey was Harris’ best result with Black voters since she got into the race — 83% said they are voting for her. She also does better than she or President Biden had been doing with Latinos earlier in the year, with 61% now saying they are going to cast a vote for Harris. That is marginally lower, however, than past Democratic performances with Hispanic voters.

There has been a lot made in this election of Trump trying to siphon off young, Black men from the Democratic Party. It’s hard to tell how real it is because of how big the margins of error are in national polls.

In 2008, Obama won a majority of the votes of black people. According to the exit polls, Biden won in 2020 and they didn’t change their vote share. That’s not a huge difference.

It could be the widest presidential election gender gap on record, with Trump seemingly getting a lot of support from men. The last two elections showed very wide gaps — 24 points in 2016, and 23 in 2020. The 34 points is the most recent poll by NPR.

Democrats hope that number goes even higher this year, given the party’s intense focus on women’s reproductive rights, and the fact that this is the first general election since the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Trump, though, won them by less in six of the seven swing states, except North Carolina. She made that a critical piece of her strategy by losing by less as a result of Biden’s inroads.

Roughly 1 in 5 voters have said they live in a union household over the last two election cycles in those three states, and Biden significantly improved over Clinton’s margins. Clinton lost all three Blue Wall states to Trump. White voters who do not have degrees are important to Trump, so he could cut into those margins again.

Why Did President Trump and Vice President Harris Win in 2016? A New Look at the State of the Union and the Problem with Latino Voting

Below is a guide to the groups to pay closest attention to on election night that could tell the story of how — and why — former President Donald Trump or Vice President Harris wins.

The presidential election is expected to be tight, according to the polls. But beneath the closeness of the head-to-head numbers, there have been some important shifts happening in American politics.

Obama was close enough in 2012 to win a second term. In the election of 2016 Clinton fell off in that area, and Trump won. This time around, pre-election polling has shown Harris doing even better than Biden in the suburbs. It is likely that she will not have a chance of winning.

The suburbs have shifted toward Democrats, and Trump has increased Republicans’ advantage in rural areas. In 2020, Biden narrowly won the election, as did Obama in 2008.

Something else to keep an eye on, though: Union voters are changing. White, male working-class voters of the 1960s were not the only ones becoming younger and white-collar.

Democrats have dominated with union voters over the years. That helped insulate them in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin and Michigan, which have high concentrations of white, working-class voters.

Young voters support Democrats when they win. Democrats won more than half of the votes of voters under 30 years of age in the last three years. In 2016, just 55% of them voted for Clinton.

But voters 18-29 years old broke for Obama by almost 50 points compared to just 17 for Biden. They also turned out at a 3 percentage-point-higher share of the electorate in 2008 compared to 2020.

Harris has also been lagging with the group in pre-election polling. This is a group that turns out at lower rates than others, and polls have indicated that they are among the least likely to say they are definitely voting in this election.

But incendiary comments by a comedian at a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden, calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” threaten to hurt Trump in places like Pennsylvania. The Harris campaign has been quick to point to this and other racist rhetoric as part of their argument for Latinos to vote Democratic.

Respondents in a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll aren’t convinced Vice President Harris, as president, would carry out the proposals she’s put forward during this campaign, in a sign of what may be preventing her from closing the deal with voters.

Voters were evenly split, 49% to 49%, on whether they thought Harris intends to carry out the proposals, or if her promises are just politics, intended to make people vote for her.

She may also be holding up well because the poll found the narrowest gap between Trump and Harris on who likely voters said would be best to handle the economy, with 50% saying Trump and 49% saying Harris. Trump had previously led on beliefs about his handling of the economy.

But Harris hasn’t quite been able to seize the change mantle as part of the Biden administration, as voters were split on who most represents change: 50% said Trump, 48% chose Harris.

The adults were asked about their views on politics, religion, sex, race, and other issues during the month of October. It includes 1,446 registered voters and 1,297 likely voters. With registered voters, the survey has a 3.3 percentage point margin of error. It has a 3.5 point margin of error with likely voters, meaning results could be 3.5 points higher or lower.

Most early voters plumped for Harris and the majority of respondents said they had already voted. A majority of those who said they have not yet voted, but intend to, said they would cast their ballots for Trump.

While most people think that the elections should be accepted, more people think that Trump should challenge them if he thinks he is going to lose and more people think that there will be violence after the election.

The Harris campaign said that over the weekend, some 90,000 volunteers knocked on 3 million doors, for example. Trump will have four rallies in three states on Monday.

Those who identify as white evangelical voters, those who live in rural areas and those without college degrees are the types of voters that have been preferred by Trump.

The gender divide becomes particularly pronounced by education. On the question of whether Harris actually intends to enact her promises or if they’re just political, 53% of women said she intends to follow through, while 54% of men said the opposite.

Harris has been targeting Republican women, campaigning, for example, with Rep. Liz Cheney, a conservative former congresswoman from Wyoming and daughter of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney.

What are voters thinking about when casting their ballot? – What are they thinking about? Why do voters think about inflation, immigration and abortion?

When asked what they’re most thinking about when casting their ballot, 3 in 10 voters said preserving democracy. Immigration, abortion issues and inflation were some of the issues that followed.

Trump voters, on the other hand, said inflation and immigration are most important for them. Independents said inflation and immigration were second and third most important after preserving democracy.

When voters were asked if abortion rights would be their second choice, it was found to be the second most important issue. For Democrats, that was just as true as it was for anyone else.